女士们、先生们，亲爱的朋友们：
我叫雷米夏（Michael Leh）。我是一名常驻柏林的记者，也是总部位于美因河畔法兰克福的“国际人权协会”（IGFM）执行委员会成员。我于2002年首次造访台湾，自那时起，这座迷人岛屿的命运便始终萦绕在我的心头。我上一次造访台湾是在2022年7月，当时是陪同担任欧洲议会副议长的德国人尼古拉·贝尔（Nicola Beer，自民党/FDP）前往，时间就在南希·佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）访台前夕。我们一行人与多位政要举行了会谈，包括蔡英文总统、外交部长吴钊燮博士（现任国家安全会议秘书长）以及时任行政院长苏贞昌。就在几个月前的2022年2月24日，俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰。这场残酷的入侵行动占据了我们在台北讨论的很大一部分。贝尔副议长在谈到中华人民共和国时明确表示：“绝不能让台湾重演‘2月24日’那样的悲剧。”
俄罗斯那些充满杀戮的攻击——包括针对乌克兰平民的攻击——所造成的后果，我们每天都能在媒体上看到。我与乌克兰著名的诺贝尔和平奖得主亚历山德拉·马特维丘克（Oleksandra Matviichuk）相识。这位居住在基辅、才华洋溢的人权律师于2022年荣获诺贝尔奖。早在2021年，我就曾在柏林与她会面；当时，她正陪同两位曾遭俄罗斯方面在乌克兰东部城市顿内茨克拘押并施以酷刑的乌克兰前政治犯。
今天是诺贝尔和平奖得主刘晓波逝世九周年纪念日，我特意联系了亚历山德拉，告知她这一情况，并向她发送了我们研讨会的日程安排。
受诺贝尔和平奖得主亚历珊卓·马特维丘克之托，我谨向在座各位致以诚挚的问候，共同纪念诺贝尔和平奖得主刘晓波。她预祝我们的活动圆满成功，同时也向今晚即将获颁人权奖项的张展和罗兰·库纳（Roland Kühne）牧师表示祝贺。
我还再次向奥克桑德拉·马特维丘克寄送了一份刘晓波那份具有里程碑意义的《零八宪章》。我非常钦佩马特维丘克，她长期以来一直作为事实上的全球大使，致力于推动本国的人权事业。她的讲座、演讲、声明和访谈，对于提升外界对乌克兰局势（包括俄罗斯占领区状况）的关注与理解，发挥了巨大作用。我确信，她同时也始终密切关注着世界其他地区的人权议题。鉴于俄罗斯持续不断的导弹和无人机攻击——包括针对基辅的攻击——我时刻为她的安危担忧，并衷心祈祷她能免于此类攻击。
任教于诺丁汉大学的德国汉学家兼政治学家安德烈亚斯·富尔达（Andreas Fulda），今年出版了一部德语著作，题为《当中国发动攻击时》（*Wenn China angreift*）。富尔达担心，德国在处理对华关系时，正重蹈其2022年前对俄政策的覆辙。他在书中运用了小说般的笔触和丰富的同理心想象力，描绘了中国可能对台湾发动攻击的情境。
尽管这部作品属于虚构叙事，但其中所描述的许多内容却显得相当切合实际。富尔达（Fulda）生于1977年，曾在两岸（中国大陆与台湾）生活和工作，对当前的政治局势了如指掌。在虚构情节之后，书中还包含了一些阐述事实论点的章节——正如他所言，这是“虚构背后的事实”。富尔达撰写这本书，既是为了让德国大众了解台湾所面临的威胁，也是为了揭示一旦发生此类攻击，将为德国带来的政治与经济后果。该书旨在发出警示，力求协助防止战争爆发。这本书在德国迅速成为畅销书。富尔达无疑已成功引发了人们对台湾问题的新一轮关注。这一点尤其重要，因为俄罗斯在欧洲腹地发动的对乌克兰的侵略战争占据了德国舆论的大量关注，使得台湾问题显得格外遥远。
德国需要制定一项新的对台政策——即明确且及时地向中国表明，武力攻台将付出高昂代价。正如富尔达所言，我也认为德国不应再将向台湾提供武器视为禁区。此举旨在增强台湾的威慑能力。在2022年之前，向乌克兰提供武器曾被视为禁忌，结果导致错失良机，为时已晚。德国的潜艇或潜艇相关技术能为台湾提供助力；各类所谓的“军民两用物资”——也就是既可用于民用也可用于军事领域的技术——同样能发挥作用。
德国在外交层面孤立台湾的状况应有所缓解。如果德国教育部长访问台湾，她理应能会见台湾的总统。既然捷克议长曾获准在台湾立法院发表演说（事实也确实如此），那么德国议长也应获准这样做。德国不能一方面空谈“基于共同价值观的伙伴关系”，另一方面却将台湾的民主人士视为避之唯恐不及的“麻疯病人”。德国必须降低对中国的经济依赖，以减少自身遭受勒索的风险。
一味卑躬屈膝并不能安抚侵略者，反而会助长其进一步的侵略行径。温斯顿·丘吉尔曾这样评价那些错误的绥靖政策：“绥靖者就是那种喂养鳄鱼的人，指望鳄鱼最后一个吃掉自己。”
如今，俄罗斯与中国这两只“鳄鱼”甚至在欧洲针对乌克兰的战争中联手合作。我不愿被它们中的任何一方吞噬，也希望台湾能作为一个自由民主的国家生存下去。
Ninth Anniversary of Liu Xiaobo’s Passing
Inaugural Liu Xiaobo Human Rights Award Ceremony and Symposium on Constitutional Democracy in China / July 13, Leipzig
What can Germany do to help prevent a Chinese attack on Taiwan? / Michael Leh
Ladies and gentlemen, dear friends,
my name is Michael Leh. I am a journalist based in Berlin and a member of the Executive Board of the International Society for Human Rights (IGFM), which is headquartered in Frankfurt / Main. I first visited Taiwan in 2002, and since then, the fate of this fascinating island has never left my thoughts. I was last there in July 2022, accompanied by the then-German Vice President of the European Parliament, Nicola Beer (FDP), shortly before Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Together, we held talks with, among others, President Tsai Ing-Wen, Foreign Minister Dr. Joseph Wu—the current National Security Advisor—and then-Prime minister Su Tseng-chang. A few months earlier, on February 24, 2022, Russia had invaded Ukraine. This brutal invasion already took up a large part of our discussions in Taipei. Vice President Beer stated, with regard to the People’s Republic of China: “There must never be a February 24 like that for Taiwan.”
The consequences of Russia’s murderous attacks—including those targeting the civilian population in Ukraine—can be seen every day in the media. I personally know the great Ukrainian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Oleksandra Matviicuk. This smart human rights lawyer, who lives in Kyiv, was awarded the Nobel Prize in 2022. I had already met her in Berlin in 2021 while she was accompanying two former Ukrainian political prisoners who had been detained and tortured by the Russians in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk.
Since today marks the ninth anniversary of the death of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo, I contacted Oleksandra, informed her of this, and sent her the program for our symposium.
On behalf of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Oleksandra Matviichuk, I would like to warmly greet all of you here today on the occasion of the commemoration of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo. She wishes our event every success and also congratulates Zhang Zhan and Pastor Roland Kühne on the human rights award they will receive this evening.
I also sent Oleksandra Matviichuk a copy of Liu Xiaobo’s groundbreaking “Charter 08” once again. Oleksandra Matviichuk, whom I greatly admire, has long served as a de facto global ambassador for her country’s human rights cause. Her lectures, speeches, statements, and interviews contribute greatly to raising awareness and fostering understanding of the situation in Ukraine, including the situation in the Russian-occupied territories. I am certain that she always has an open ear for human rights issues in other regions of the world as well. In light of the ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks—including those on Kyiv—I am always worried for her and fervently hope that she will never be hit as well.
The German sinologist and political scientist Andreas Fulda, who teaches at the University of Nottingham, published a book in German this year titled *Wenn China angreift* (When China Attacks). Fulda fears that Germany is making the same mistakes with China as it did in its policy toward Russia before 2022. In his book, he uses a novelistic style and a great deal of empathetic imagination to describe the scenario of a possible attack on Taiwan.
Despite the fictional nature of the narrative, much of what he describes does not seem unrealistic. Born in 1977, Fulda has lived and worked in both China and Taiwan and is very familiar with the current political situation. The fictional portion of his book is followed by chapters presenting factual arguments—“facts behind the fiction,” as he writes. Fulda’s aim is to educate the German public about the dangers facing Taiwan, but also about the political and economic consequences such an attack would have for Germany as well. His book is intended as a warning, with the goal of helping to prevent a war. The book quickly became a bestseller in Germany. Fulda has certainly already succeeded in drawing new attention to Taiwan. This is particularly important because Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in the heart of Europe is absorbing much of the attention in Germany, and Taiwan seems particularly far away.
Germany needed a new Taiwan policy—one that makes it clear to China, and in a timely manner, that the price of an attack on Taiwan would be very high. Like Fulda, I, too, believe that German arms deliveries to Taiwan should no longer be off-limits. The goal is to strengthen Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities. Arms deliveries to Ukraine were off-limits before 2022—until it was too late. German submarines, or submarine technology in general, could be helpful for Taiwan. So could various so-called dual-use goods. That is, technology that can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
The extent of Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation in Germany should be reduced. If a German minister of education flies to Taiwan, she must also be able to pay a visit to the Taiwanese president. If, as has happened, a Czech parliamentary speaker can deliver a speech in the Taiwanese parliament, then a German parliamentary speaker should also be permitted to do so. One cannot casually speak of a “partnership based on shared values” and then treat Taiwanese democrats like lepers. Germany’s economic dependence on China must be reduced so that it is less vulnerable to blackmail.
Constant kowtowing does not appease the aggressor but encourages further aggression. Winston Churchill said of misguided appeasement policies: “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.”
Right now, the two “crocodiles”—Russia and China—are even working together in the war against Ukraine in Europe. I don’t want to be devoured by either of them, and I hope that Taiwan, too, will survive as a free and democratic nation.
【欧洲之声】2026.07.17
0 条评论